Poker Winning Hands

Poker Hands – Folding a Total Dwelling in the 2016 WSOP Primary Occasion?!





It truly is the 2016 WSOP (Environment Series of Poker) Primary Occasion, and the discipline is stacked with legends these as Daniel Negreanu, Phil Ivey, Dan Colman, Phil Hellmuth ,and Antonio Esfandiari. Regretably, Tom Dwan and Viktor Blom are not current, but Michael Ruane and James Obst are below to face off with quite a few millions of pounds at stake in this high stakes poker match.

As usually, Doug Polk breaks down each individual street of action. Poker Hands is the demonstrate wherever Doug analyzes dwell poker palms from television set poker demonstrates these as Poker Immediately after Dim, EPT (European Poker Tour), Higher Stakes Poker, the Aussie Hundreds of thousands, WPT (Environment Poker Tour) the Huge A single For A single Fall, and the PCA (Pokerstars Carribean Adventure).

In this edition of Poker Hands, the 2016 WSOP Primary Occasion contenders find them selves in an epic cooler problem. It truly is a straight flush in opposition to a complete house, and one particular of the gamers is thinking about a fold! Could this ever perhaps be right? Doug places on his analyst hat and critiques each individual final decision.

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42 comments

  1. OBST's final decision: He has the worst "big hand", so the fold makes sense. Why would Ruane go all in without a "completed" hand. The board is paired. Ruane knows Obst can likely have a set before the river. Ruane had to have at least a full house, which makes Obst's full house the weakest full house. Ruane ain't pushing all-in with a flush only. Ruane, in Obst's line of thinking, had to have a completed hand to make the river all-in bet. And since Obst has the worst "completed" boat,
    it becomes an obvious fold.

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  2. i think it was a weird blocking bet with a boat…also why you like the smaller bet??with the straight flush specially its good…but with everu other possible flush you give your opponent direct odds to call….so i mean its logic but surely not balanced…..

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  3. Obst's tiny river bet is a sick, next level play. With a bet this small, Ruane almost certainly has to pay off with any flush. With gameplay as it was, Ruane will have primarilly nut flushes (all nut flushes are actually possible at this point) and occasionally something like K8, 5-4, 6-5, 6-4.

    Now while, Ruane will be forced to pay off with those hands, he can NEVER raise with them. Therefore, when Ruane shoves he is polarized to something stronger than bottom boat or a bluff, and there are a few hands better than 7s full in Ruane's range. K9s and 98s are perfectly strong candidates to take this line. AKs is three-betting a large chunk of the time but not all the time.

    What makes this fold so impressive to me, is that Ruane, essentially had no boats in his range. QQ and JJ are very likely three-bets pre-flop. JJ can flat pre some of the time and be okay, but flatting such a small raise with QQ would be very bad. There are a few tens Ruane could have, but they never contain a Q or a J, and they would usually contain the ten of clubs, which as we saw, is not possible. He might have gotten aggressive with AT or KT, but we're not losing to those hands, and Ruane is never raising the river with them.

    The river bet is what allowed Obst to stay in the tournament. He is very unlikely to fold to a river shove when checked to, and he is losing out on getting any value from the hands which he might be able to get value from. I think you're projecting too much of your own thought process onto Obst when dissecting this hand, Doug. You should be able to watch this great play and learn something from it, rather than just saying his play doesn't conform to your standards of optimal play, and therefore judging it harshly.

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  4. some bad make up, doug

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  5. "If Obst decides that Ruane is on a draw and jams, Ruane is going to be fucked."

    I laughed so hard. Great analysis as always, glad I subscribed.

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  6. THAT was a fold I can respect!!!!!

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  7. I knew it was a huge mistake when he never reraised preflop with 77

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  8. i think when he bet the river it was a feeler bet he told himself if he comes over the top of me here then there is no way im good because there is no point of the other guy jamming if he doesnt beat his boat… if he ships it he has to have bigger boat or the straight flush… it was a good bet to help him with a sick read and an even sicker lay down… props to him… also props to doug i like ya vids this is just my 2 cents…

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  9. Still don't get how Obst put Ruane on a straight flush. What a sick call.

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  10. Good analysis. I wonder if the concept of playing gto is really applicable to these once in a lifetime deep in the wsop, tournament situations. It is not like your daily 5-10 cash game played against the same regulars. You may not need to protect your value bets with occasional bluffs as though you will be doing this 200 times and you don't want to be exploited. It could be that you simply should not have a $10
    Million chip bluff into a 25 million chip pot with opponent showing heavy strength and which sometimes causes you to bust out.

    Now certainly that can cost you some chips when you have the straight flush, and I think this is how the boat was able to fold. But ICM considerations mean that bluffing off all your chips is far far worse than failing to gain some value that you might have gotten.

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  11. if you think about that small river bet it seems pretty genius you get value from the nut flush because no flush will ever raise you beside the str8 flush and you can think what hands will ever raise here only bigger boats or str8 flush or bluff but does he ever has a bluff here not really so i say if you look it datway the bet is genius and i think it made him safe his chips here with this awsome fold. Not saying anyone else could do this here but this bet is just awsome and if he checks here he get either no value or has to call the all in so i think this river bet is not like you said the worst play in this hand its the best and it is one of the best bets i saw last year.

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  12. Doug, I respectfully disagree with your analysis. You CAN lay-down boats in that situation, as long as you REALLY KNOW your opponent. You can't do it OFTEN, else you're too easy to bluff, but if you lay down weak full-boats 2-5% of the time, I'm FINE with that.Especially after that REEKING turn-bet…Yuck…SPOILER ALERT: I HAVE STRAIGHT FLUSH. PRICING YOUR SET INTO POT.

    Last point, frankly, this was an AMAZING AMAZING AMAZING fold. You kind of just blew it off, Doug. Perhaps you don't put value into "reads" when determining course of actions, as you approach the game from a purely analytic viewpoint. But, I think you short-change the value of it for other players.

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  13. does it get better than this? To turn a straigth flush deep into the main event for this big of a pot? lol

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  14. This hand is so complex, you can make an argument for either folding, or calling. But I think the most relevant piece of information is the shove.

    He's never shoving a flush, because of the call on the turn, and lead on the river – you just call with the flush. So he's on a boat or a bluff, or a straight flush. A bluff is super risky, and actually kind of unlikely given the betting pattern, but it's possible given the river.

    The answer I think is, the bluffs are less than the nutty hands. Actually, the only bluff that makes sense I think is QJ. It just doesn't make sense.

    So actually, this is a pretty easy fold if you think about it for a while. If only we could have the time 🙂

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  15. Hey Doug thanks for this awesome Polker Hand!!! Big love

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  16. I go a bit bigger on the 3b on the flop with 77, everything else in the hand is played perfect. I also think for value, all that jams over 4.7 is 98cc and QQ. Even JJ I think reluctantly flats and he can't have 1010 and the other thing is I don't think he bets the turn small with QQ even after the check that often, but I could be wrong about the frequency. There were two ways to look at the river correctly and that was to make it very complicated and narrow it down to a a one or maybe two hand range of all value 98cc and QQ and make a soul read or to be a bit more simple and say he doesn't have many bluffs here and he doesn't bluff with them and he doesn't shove for value with worse so fold. I think it was a great play

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  17. 77 is losing vs: QQ,JJ,QT,JT,TT,8c9c.
    It is really hard to call an all in vs a tight player, since you aren't close to the nuts on this board with the lowest fullhouse. However the pot odds are: 7,7 to call a pot with 37,9 so you need 17%+ to call. Such a hard hand to judge while playing for so much money, but with these odds you need to call and cry.

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  18. did you do something with your hair? you look even more douchey than usual

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  19. Whilst I'm totally down with the GTO-style analysis, I think there is room for a "soul read" in this spot given the very specific action and board run-out. Ruane rarely has QQ given preflop action, and if he had JJ he would be 4betting flop at least some percentage of the time given that Obst never has QQ either. Obst's 3bet on the flop screams set or QJ and Ruane's facial reaction @7:26 confirms that his thoughts are the same. He may have a hint of paranoia about being up against a bigger FD, but that possibility is slim if not null (perhaps only KcQc for top pair and 2nd NFD). When Ruane bets 3.75m on the turn he gives odds for Obst to boat up. Why invite him in? Would he not barrel larger with a bluff or A/K high flush to polarize his range? And what tens does Ruane have on the flop? All his tens are either 1 pair hands, straight draws or flushdraws- the first two hand types don't really get to the turn in this way if ever and the Tc is invalidated by it coming on the turn. Conclusion: Ruane never (or very rarely) has boats by the river. Of course, with Obst having bottom boat, this is irrelevant in terms of the final call decision on the river, but it is necessary for the specific SF read.

    And I just don't see what bluffs he has on the river either. If he had QJ that he turned into a bluff to try and fold out small boats or flushes then that would be a whole new level of sickness. Why do that at this stage in the ME when villain covers your stack? Honestly, what worse hands does Ruane ever have when he shoves the river? And if we can't list any, front shoving sevens full on the river is turning the hand into a bluff! And I simply can't follow the logic of "we must call river shove with hands of strength x" when we can't list a single worse hand Ruane might have. Of course it is always easy when you see the cards in the replay. And in Obst's shoes I would be stacking off sevens full with a heavy heart and a line similar to what you suggest. But I think Obst knew exactly what he was doing with the river block bet and I don't think he deserves criticism for making one of the sickest folds of all time.

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  20. Is looks like Danien Negranu (maybe not) full house vs Quards. But really this read is amazing. He just fold from 89C. No from QQ no from JJ no from any 10(10-10, 10-j,10-Q-10-7)

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  21. I think obsts river bet saved him his stack redefining both hands, ruane is at worse jamming with J 10 or JJ (though JJ is less likely as it would of most likely been re raised on the button). Obsts river bet re defines to ruane that he has the boat so when ruane jamms what can obst really beat? if ruane is jamming with a flush after a turn check from obst to a river lead then hes only getting called by a better hand and there goes his tourny, right around the time both players had tightened up slightly for chip conservation. Against another player or another situation the call would be the correct play but i think obst played this hand on the next level (unlike hes flush fold to a looser nguyen…).
    BTW your video analysis are great man, i appreciate them.

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  22. obst lead is 100% gto

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  23. When Ruane bets so tiny on the turn, it makes a straight flush much more likely because at that point its an extremely polarized bet. The nut flush would never allow a set to draw so cheaply at a boat. So, its either a super marginal hand like Q10 or QJ trying to buy a cheaper showdown, or a straight flush. Combine that with the fact that Ruane jams river…. would a set on the turn make such an awkward bet? Maybe from a complete amateur who's playing 1-2 at the Aria, but not from these guys. If a set doesn't make the awkward turn bet, then the river jam can't be a boat – its either turning a hand with showdown value into a bluff, or its exactly the straight flush.

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  24. I think obst bet the river to see what ruane would do. if he checked and faced a shove I think he would've called it but instead he got away.

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  25. Interesting hypothetical…I think if Pons decides to go insane and come over the top of Obst for a 4 bet all in bluff I think he takes this pot. Ruane can't call with a draw and Obst, unless he thinks Pons if bad enough to do that with AA/KK or A-Q, probably puts him on QQ or JJ (totally reasonable for him to have in this spot) and lays down as well. Ruane's can't have QQ and Obst's hand seems pretty face up as 77 so it wouldn't be that bad of a play, albeit super risky.

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  26. pics of feet plz

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  27. you can't call here cause this is never a bluff.

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  28. OBST should spend less time studying tells or something xD

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  29. 10Q, JJ, I get the fold.

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  30. stop talking!!!!!

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  31. I see people bluff re-raise shoving rivers very rarely. Especially , in the main at that stage I do not think there is a crazy enough person to do so.Also , they should know that they are polarizing themselves only to a straight flush. So overall, exceptional play by OBST. Maybe thats why im sitting here and he s playing the main. Im jamming the river 10 ,everyday all day 🙂

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  32. Hey Doug, as always thanks for the video, first time I've seen a Full House lose in WSOP (that is, losing on showdown). I have a general question though because I hear you talk about it a lot in your videos and I've been trying to find out more about it on the internet but haven't really gotten a clear understanding about it. I am an amateur poker player but I've always liked it, and I'm very good at math and odds on the fly. Can you explain (or if you've already made a video explaining it, link the video) what the subtle differences are between the possible hands you can have in the various positions around a poker table, Dealer chip, Small Blind, Big Blind; and also how it effects post flop betting/odds? I'd greatly appreciate it, and keep up the great videos :).

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  33. turn bet is way too small considering obst 3bet flop i mean is obst ever folding 6mill on the turn seems unlikely get value man…river small lead is awfull what hands call u for value? c/c or shove river its not even close

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  34. how he can fold flhouse?))))))

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  35. Nice as always

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  36. Hey Doug, could you analyze Qui Nguyen hands in final table to his overall strategy vs other pros etc, that would be rad!

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  37. FLOP ANALYSIS:

    Everyone is going on about the river, but I think he's played the flop massively incorrectly here. Obst 3-betting bottom set on the flop, what does he achieve? He is risking a 4-bet raise from AKc/ATc/A9c/A8c (all with nut flush and gut shot draws) even QJ could 4-bet in this spot giving you an awkward decision with a hand you're crushing. With that raise he is also making AQ/KQ/AJ/KJ all fold.

    In short I think that 3-betting in that spot means all hands you are beating fold and any hand that is drawing to beat you calls / any hand (QQ/JJ) crushing you will also call. The only downsize to the call is UTG is getting a great price to call too with any two, however that is fine as the only hand you don't want to allow him to call with is a baby flush draw (as bigger flush draws are coming along regardless) but surely with an UTG open the combo's of low suited club hands is small! However, if he has that baby flush he is blocking the outs potential for A-high flush which is a big part of the flop-raise range of Ruane (E.g. the only hand you don't want to give a great price too is the exact hand taking away 2 out of a likely range of the player making the 2-bet raise). With the calling 2m flop line with bottom set, on the turn you can try and pot control to get to a cheap river card and hopeful boat if the flush hits, OR with a brick on the turn play aggressive and try to kill the pot there and then when the draws have worse odds to come along.

    As the hand played out though, I do really like the blocker bet on the river – as I do think there is no realistic hands that would raise you that you're beating. Would an ace high flush really only turn bet such a small amount it's giving the exact pot odds for a two pair/set to call and river a full house?! And any hand you're beating (QJ, KT) will surely want to show down as they know raising it will only get called by a better hand?

    Poker is so subjective though – there are several different ways to play a hand, and every different way is based upon an assumption that a certain player will do a certain move in certain circumstances.

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  38. Hi Doug Polk, there is very interest hand  between OBST and NGUYN,

    that OBST got his flash on river, but fold to NGUYN allin bet on pair board, he thought his flash no good, that NGUYN must had full house.

    OBST just think too far ahead, why NGUYN rase me on turn, he must had two pairs, so river his two pair turn into full house, then fold his flash. when he go home see it on TV,  full of pain, otherwise he would on the final table.

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  39. You guys do know Doug Polk is one of the best poker players in the world, and some may even make the argument he actually is the best. I'm not saying you should take his word as gospel, but be careful with what you say here cause odds are he is way better than any of you.

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  40. Gotta give Obst some credit here. That was a plain read and not just ranges and probabilities clashing on each other (on which you did a perfectly fine analysis). One of the toughest and best laydowns I've seen. Ever.

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  41. Yup The Kassouf video and this one have summed up the pre final table action :). Very interesting analysis. Thanks Doug.

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  42. LOVE the Isildur poster in the background omg

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